Never miss a CFP - Natty Road 🏈 update!
My quarterfinals report card
In my semifinal picks, I went 2-for-2, as I finally accepted Miami’s CFP destiny. But back to Round 1 of the CFP, I stand on No. 1 seed Indiana in this most important next mile down Natty Road.
✅ Indiana vs. Oregon, MY PICK: INDIANA.
✅ Miami vs. Ole Miss, MY PICK: MIAMI.
Semifinals: 2-0
CFP total: 6-3
Semifinal takeaways
The CFP semifinals delivered two storylines that felt like January gridiron cinema!
Miami won an instant classic at the Fiesta Bowl, and the Peach Bowl was an epic Greek tragedy as every Oregon bounce seemed to flip Indiana’s way.
The takeaways:
Indiana 56, Oregon 22 (Peach Bowl). In the first 10 seconds, Indiana had scored on a Pick-6, and this one might as well have been over. Oregon rallied to briefly tie it at 7-all, but the Hoosiers’ Heisman QB Fernando Mendoza and Indiana’s stifling defense steamrolled Oregon 56-22.
Indiana is that good. Indiana has balance and discipline on both sides of the ball. In my three decades around the game as an athlete, sportswriter, and assistant coach, this is one of the most disciplined, best coached teams I’ve seen at any level. That 15-0 record is no fluke. Nobody has beaten Cignetti-era Indiana twice. This is discipline meeting elite execution.
Miami 31, Ole Miss 27 (Fiesta Bowl). ‘Canes QB Carson Beck marched the Hurricanes down late, capped by a 3-yard TD run in the game’s final 18 seconds that punched Miami’s ticket to its first Natty opportunity in decades. It wasn’t always pretty, but it was peak college football for the CFP era.
Miami has grit, talent, and a little inconsistency. There’s a redemption vibe around this year’s Miami program. An unmistakable energy on the field and on the ‘Canes sideline. I picked against Miami in the first two rounds; my bad. With 20/20 hindsight, it’s easy to see the chip on the shoulder of Miami’s all-Pro alumni, the Hurricanes’ defense, and Beck practically willing the offense down the field.
Jan. 19: The Natty
No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 10 Miami: Home-field advantage for the ‘Canes at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens. Everything else favors Indiana.
Indiana Hoosiers (Curt Cignetti)
Coaching Style: Extremely disciplined, detail-obsessed, with minimal mistakes.
Edge: Attacking, battle-tested defense; efficient, mistake-free offense.
Key to victory: Protect possession and control momentum. Limit turnovers and let Heisman QB Mendoza cook.
Miami Hurricanes (Mario Cristobal)
Coaching Style: Very physical, opportunistic, risk-taking.
Edge: Home field at Hard Rock Stadium, talent mismatches.
Key to victory: Create chaos, turnovers, and explosive plays. Make process-oriented Indiana as uncomfortable as possible.
My Natty prediction
Why some would pick Miami:
Miami’s ceiling is high, but inconsistency continues to be a factor throughout the season.
‘Canes QB Beck is fearless but streaky, and capable of late-game heroics.
The defense is fast and athletic, but thrives on sudden change rather than grinding.
Cristobal is aggressive and makes unpredictable game-management calls in critical moments, sometimes to a fault.
Why others would pick Indiana:
Where Miami has the elite talent, the Hoosiers have elite discipline. Indiana plays clean, assignment-sound football and rarely beats itself.
Heisman QB Mendoza is calm, efficient, ruthless, and rarely makes mistakes.
Indiana’s defense is fearless and physical, built to force turnovers and shorten possessions.
Hoosiers’ coach Cignetti runs a controlled, detail-obsessed program that wins on preparation.
Miami is a very talented football team with a fairy tale home-field advantage. The ‘Canes can win with momentum, emotion, and explosive swings.
But Indiana is the textbook model of a championship football program. Indiana wins with structure, patience, and execution. The championship will be decided by whether discipline or disruption dictates the night.
Cignetti-era Indiana feels inevitable, organized, physical, and coached like a team that expects to win it all.
My prediction: Indiana dances in the Natty Road confetti on Monday night. Their balanced, disciplined brand of football wins college football’s biggest prize.
MY PICK FOR THE NATTY: INDIANA.
Your turn! Let’s hear it in the comments:
Who’s your way-too-early Natty pick?
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