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My quarterfinals report card
In my quarterfinal picks, I missed on two of the three upsets and hit arguably the easiest pick in the round, taking No. 1 seed Indiana all the way down Natty Road.
ā Indiana vs. Alabama, MY PICK: INDIANA.
ā Oregon vs. Texas Tech, MY PICK: OREGON.
ā Georgia vs. Ole Miss, MY PICK: GEORGIA.
ā Ohio State vs. Miami, MY PICK: OHIO STATE.
Quarterfinal total: 2-2
First-round total: 2-1
CFP total: 4-3
Quarterfinal takeaways
The quarterfinals didnāt just shake the playoff landscape, they muddied the waters even more on CFP structure, transfer calendar, and first-round byes.
Indiana (14-0) is the first top-four seed to win after a first-round bye in two seasons of the expanded CFP. Teams earning byes are now 1-7 in two seasons of the 12-team playoff bracket.
The takeaways:
Win or lose, Indiana is legit. The top-seed Hoosiers steamrolled Alabama 38-3 in the Rose Bowl, physically dominant and tactically disciplined. Indiana QB1 Fernando Mendoza was surgical, the run game oppressive, and the Hoosiers owned the Crimson Tide on both sides of the line of scrimmage.
Defense is a game-changer. Miami stunned Ohio State 24-14 in the Cotton Bowl, seizing control with offensive balance and opportunistic defense. The āCanes defense can keep them in the game with any team in the nation, and a Mario Cristobal O-Line will always find ways to move the ball.
Balance is king. No. 5 Oregonās 23-0 win over No. 4 Texas Tech in the Orange Bowl was devastating for the Red Raidersā narrative of red-zone efficiency and a championship defense. The Ducks can force turnovers, play disciplined football, and bring Dante Mooreās arm and legs into a rhythm opponents hate preparing for.
The Sugar Bowl delivered an instant classic. Ole Miss outlasted Georgia 39-34 in a comeback thriller capped by Lucas Carneiroās all-world kicking leg. Trinidad Chambliss, the unheralded QB transfer from Ferris State, threw a late-game dagger to cross midfield and brought Ole Miss into FG range for the winner.
Jan. 8: Fiesta Bowl
No. 10 Miami vs. No. 6 Ole Miss: Thereās no better pass rush in this yearās CFP semifinals than Miamiās blistering Edge pressure.
Ole Miss has a potent offense, but Miamiās rush can force mistakes, and the secondary is a turnover factory.
If Miamiās elite O-Line protects Carson Beck enough to sustain drives, the Hurricanes post another upset.
MY PICK: MIAMI
Jan. 9: Peach Bowl
No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 5 Oregon: Indiana hammered Alabama 38-3 in the quarterfinals with O-Line dominance and control of the gameās tempo.
If the Hoosiers get the same push on the edges in their rematch against Oregon, the Ducksā offense shrinks fast. In their regular-season meeting back in October, Indiana won 30-20 with six sacks and Dante Moore pressured more than Iāve seen an Oregon QB on the ground in a decade.
Indiana is one of the most disciplined, well-coached teams Iāve seen in my 30+ years around the game as an athlete, sportswriter, and assistant coach.
Itās been said that playoff games are lost more than theyāre won. The Hoosiers donāt make many mistakes, and theyāve already found a way to beat Oregon once this year.
MY PICK: INDIANA
Week-early Natty picks
Hard Rock Stadium, Jan. 19: Indiana proved an important point in this playoff run: The cleanest football keeps advancing.
Why some would pick Indiana:
The Hoosiers embarrassed Alabama by winning the line of scrimmage and refusing to blink, and that DNA travels. Curt Cignettiās Indiana squad feels inevitable, organized, physical, and coached like a team that expects to win it all.
Why others would pick Miami:
Miami is the chaos agent. The Hurricanes are opportunistic and sharp on defense, with a Cristobal O-Line thatās predictably become elite.
If Miami rides its momentum against Ole Miss, the fairytale ending of a home game for the CFP title is just too perfect.
MY PICK: MIAMI.
Indiana to the Natty feels logical. This yearās Miami squad feels dangerous. Iāll take the āCanes under the confetti in a hometown showdown with Indiana in Miami Gardens down the home stretch of Natty Road.
Your turn! Letās hear it in the comments:
Whoās your way-too-early Natty pick?
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